Steam visibility playbook: the algorithm formula for organic wishlist growth

# Steam Visibility Playbook: The Algorithm Formula for Organic Wishlist Growth

Article 5 of 7 | Game Design Insights Series Read Time: 11 min | Marketing & Analytics | Updated: November 2025

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The indie dev paradox

The Problem: You built a great game. Nobody sees it. The Stats:

• Average Steam game: 1,500 wishlists at launch
• Top 10% of indies: 30,000+ wishlists
• Breakout indies: 200,000+ wishlists
• All on the same platform, same algorithm

The Question: What separates invisible games from viral ones? The Answer: Understanding that Steam isn't random. It's a formula. And formulas can be hacked.

After analyzing 100+ successful indie launches and reverse-engineering Steam's visibility mechanics, here's the complete playbook for organic growth.

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The core algorithm formula

What developers believe: "Steam's algorithm is mysterious and random." What's actually true: Steam is ruthlessly predictable.

The visibility equation

Visibility Score = (Engagement Rate × Traffic Volume) + Conversion Quality

Where:

Engagement Rate = (Wishlists + Clicks + Video Plays) / Impressions

Traffic Volume = Total impressions from all sources

Conversion Quality = Wishlist-to-purchase rate + Review score + Playtime

The Insight: Steam doesn't promote games randomly. It promotes games that convert impressions into engaged users.

Breaking down each component

1. Engagement Rate (40% of algorithm)

Measures: How many people who SEE your game take action?

Engagement Rate = (Actions Taken / Impressions) × 100

Actions include:

• Wishlist adds (highest weight)
• Capsule clicks (medium weight)
• Trailer plays (medium weight)
• Page time >30 seconds (low weight)

Industry Benchmarks:

• 12%+ = Exceptional (algorithm loves you)
• 8-11% = Strong (good visibility)
• 5-7% = Average (minimal boost)
• <5% = Weak (algorithm buries you)

2. Traffic Volume (30% of algorithm)

Measures: Total impressions across all sources

Sources ranked by value:

1. Discovery Queue (highest conversion)

2. Similar Games carousel (high conversion)

3. Tag pages (medium conversion)

4. Direct traffic (low algorithm boost but high conversion)

3. Conversion Quality (30% of algorithm)

Measures: What happens after wishlist/purchase?

Quality Score =

(Wishlist-to-Purchase % × 0.4) +

(Review Score × 0.3) +

(Avg Playtime vs. Genre Avg × 0.3)

High Quality = More visibility

Low Quality = Algorithm throttles you

The Feedback Loop:

Good Engagement → More Visibility → More Traffic →

More Data → Better Targeting → Higher Engagement (repeat)

Bad Engagement → Less Visibility → Less Traffic →

Insufficient Data → Poor Targeting → Lower Engagement (death spiral)

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Tactic 1: capsule image optimization

The Reality: Your capsule is your game's entire existence in 90% of impressions. The Data:

• Average capsule CTR: 4-6%
• Top performers: 10-15%
• Every 1% CTR improvement = ~25% more visibility

The $300 test that pays forever

Process: Week 1: Create 5 capsule variations

• Variation 1: Logo-focused
• Variation 2: Character-focused
• Variation 3: Action moment
• Variation 4: Core mechanic visible
• Variation 5: Aesthetic/mood-focused

Week 2: Run Steam Spotlight Ads

• $60 per variation
• Track CTR for each
• Total cost: $300

Week 3: Implement winner

• Use highest CTR as official capsule
• Monitor performance
• Re-test quarterly

Industry examples with real ctr data

Vampire Survivors Evolution:

• Initial capsule (retro logo + character): 4.2% CTR
• Tested variation (action swarm + character): 9.7% CTR
• Result: 2.3x improvement = 340% more organic visibility

Balatro Optimization:

• Early capsule (cards + logo): 6.1% CTR
• Final capsule (poker hand glow + chips): 11.8% CTR
• Result: Became #1 selling deck builder

The capsule formula

High-Converting Capsule =

Immediate Recognition (what is this?) +

Visual Impact (stands out in list) +

Emotional Hook (creates curiosity) +

Genre Signals (target audience knows it's for them)

Testing Checklist:

• [ ] Identifiable at 184×69 pixels (small capsule size)
• [ ] High contrast (stands out against Steam grey)
• [ ] No text-dependency (readable without UI text)
• [ ] Core hook visible in 0.5 seconds

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Tactic 2: strategic tag optimization

The Mistake: Using obvious, high-volume tags everyone uses. The Strategy: Mix high-volume with specific tags where you can dominate.

The tag traffic formula

Tag Value = (Follower Count × Your Ranking) / Competition

Example:

Tag "Indie" = 8M followers, you're ranked #5000 = Low value

Tag "Cozy Survival" = 80K followers, you're ranked #8 = High value

The tag portfolio strategy

Tier 1: Foundation Tags (30% of tag slots)

• Purpose: Baseline visibility
• Target: 500K+ followers
• Examples: "Singleplayer," "Strategy," "Action"
• Expected: Low ranking, but consistent trickle

Tier 2: Competitive Tags (50% of tag slots)

• Purpose: Winnable rankings
• Target: 50K-300K followers
• Examples: "Tower Defense," "Roguelike," "Deckbuilder"
• Goal: Rank in top 50 (appears on tag page)

Tier 3: Niche Domination (20% of tag slots)

• Purpose: Own the category
• Target: 10K-50K followers
• Examples: "Dragons," "Base Building," "Cosmic Horror"
• Goal: Rank in top 10 (maximum visibility)

Real example: tag strategy analysis

Successful indie tower defense game:

Foundation (3 tags):

• Strategy (680K followers, ranked #2400)
• Singleplayer (9.2M followers, ranked #8900)
• Indie (8.1M followers, ranked #6700)

Competitive (5 tags):

• Tower Defense (220K followers, ranked #12)
• Base Building (150K followers, ranked #8)
• Real-Time Strategy (180K followers, ranked #34)
• Defense (95K followers, ranked #6)
• Resource Management (78K followers, ranked #11)

Niche (2 tags):

• Dark Fantasy (42K followers, ranked #3)
• Colony Sim (28K followers, ranked #2)

Result: Top 20 in 7 tags = consistent 8K wishlists/month organic

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Tactic 3: the 90-second trailer formula

The Data:

• 70% of viewers watch without sound
• Average view duration: 23 seconds
• First 3 seconds determine 80% of completion rate

The proven structure

0-3 seconds: The Hook

• Show most impressive moment
• NO logos, NO studio names, NO text
• Pure visual impact
• Goal: Prevent skip

3-15 seconds: Core Loop

• Actual gameplay, not cutscenes
• Show moment-to-moment experience
• Goal: Communicate what you DO

15-35 seconds: Progression

• Show how game evolves
• Power progression visible
• Goal: Communicate depth

35-60 seconds: Unique Features

• What makes this different
• Your genre twist in action
• Goal: Differentiate from competitors

60-90 seconds: Climax + CTA

• Most epic moment saved for end
• Wishlist prompt
• Goal: Convert to wishlist

Critical technical specs

First Frame = Video Thumbnail

• Must work as standalone image
• Should be your capsule or better
• Highest visual impact shot

Silent-First Design:

• Assume 70% watch muted
• Visual storytelling, not narration
• Text overlays for key info only

Every 5 Seconds = Screenshot Quality:

• Pause trailer at any point = shareable image
• Each shot should look impressive frozen
• Avoid motion blur, use clear frames

Industry example: balatro trailer analysis

Structure:

• 0-3s: Glowing joker card + massive score multiplier
• 3-15s: Making poker hands, watching score climb
• 15-35s: Unlocking new jokers, showing variety
• 35-60s: Insane score combinations, satisfying animations
• 60-90s: Multiple run examples, wishlist CTA

Performance:

• 1.2M trailer views
• 38% watch completion (industry avg: 18%)
• 68K wishlists directly attributed to trailer

Why it worked: Every second was gameplay, no filler, pure dopamine loop visualization

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Tactic 4: the update cadence system

The Mechanic: Steam notifies wishlisters about updates. This is free, targeted marketing. The Strategy: Predictable rhythm that builds momentum, not random spam.

The four-tier update system

Weekly Updates (Small):

• Behind-the-scenes content
• Development progress GIFs
• Community highlights
• Impact: Keeps you "active" in algorithm (20% visibility boost)

Bi-Weekly Updates (Medium):

• Feature announcements
• Gameplay videos
• Screenshot showcases
• Impact: Engages existing wishlisters, moderate growth

Monthly Updates (Major):

• Significant feature reveals
• Demo releases/updates
• Milestone announcements
• Impact: Triggers wishlist notification emails, drives conversion

Quarterly Updates (Massive):

• Release date announcements
• Major content reveals
• Festival participation announcements
• Impact: Traffic spikes, press coverage, major wishlist growth

The performance data

Consistent cadence vs. random updates:

Consistent Monthly Updates:

• Average wishlist growth: 8-12% per update
• Sustained over 12 months
• Predictable traffic pattern

Random Updates (no schedule):

• First update: 15% growth
• Second update (3 months later): 4% growth
• Third update (2 months later): 2% growth
• Algorithm deprioritizes inconsistent developers

The Rule: Never miss a scheduled update. Ship something on schedule even if it's smaller than planned.

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Tactic 5: demo timing and optimization

The Reality: A demo is your highest-leverage marketing tool. Timing is everything.

When to release your demo

✓ Release when:

• Core loop is polished (not perfect, polished)
• During Steam Next Fest (3x normal visibility)
• 3-6 months before planned launch
• You can update based on feedback quickly

✗ Don't release when:

• Core systems still feel broken
• Unable to handle feedback for weeks
• During major competitor launches
• <2 months from launch (too late for iteration)

The demo conversion formula

Demo Success =

(Downloads × Completion Rate × Wishlist Conversion) / Time Invested

Industry Benchmarks:

• Download-to-wishlist: 30-40% excellent
• Completion rate: 50%+ excellent
• Total conversion: 15-20% excellent

The 30-60 minute sweet spot

Demo Length Data: <20 minutes: 68% completion, but 22% wishlist conversion

30-45 minutes: 58% completion, 38% wishlist conversion ✓

45-60 minutes: 49% completion, 34% wishlist conversion

>60 minutes: 31% completion, 28% wishlist conversion

Optimal: 30-60 minutes (best wishlist conversion)

Industry case study: how lethal company used no demo

Alternative strategy: No demo, but created content-friendly mechanics

• Proximity voice = automatic viral clips
• Streamer-friendly UI (shows player names, clear moments)
• Sessions perfect for streaming (20-30 min)

Result:

• Streamers became the "demo"
• 3M+ copies sold, zero paid marketing
• Proves: Demo isn't only path, but requires alt strategy

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Tactic 6: review velocity (not just volume)

The Misunderstanding: "I need 1000 reviews at launch." The Reality: Steam weighs recent reviews more than old ones.

The review velocity formula

Review Momentum = (Reviews This Month / Reviews Last Month) × Review Score

Positive momentum (>1.0): Algorithm boost

Negative momentum (<1.0): Algorithm penalty

Consistent momentum: Maximum boost

Creating review velocity

Pre-Launch:

• Staggered beta key distribution
• Keys to content creators (spread over weeks)
• Early Access with update-driven review prompts

Launch Window:

• Initial surge expected
• But plan for sustaining reviews

Post-Launch:

• Major updates trigger review prompts
• Events create review spikes
• Community challenges with rewards

The target: 20-30 reviews per week

Why this beats 500 reviews in week 1:

Scenario A (Launch Spike):

• Week 1: 500 reviews (massive spike)
• Week 2-4: 5-10 reviews/week (crash)
• Algorithm sees: Declining interest
• Result: Visibility decreases

Scenario B (Sustained Velocity):

• Week 1: 100 reviews
• Week 2-20: 20-30 reviews/week
• Algorithm sees: Sustained interest
• Result: Continued visibility boosts

How to sustain:

• Weekly content updates
• Community events every 2-3 weeks
• Major updates monthly (trigger review prompts)
• Active community management (happy players review)

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Tactic 7: wishlist-to-purchase optimization

The Two-Phase Game:

1. Growing wishlists

2. Converting wishlists to purchases

Most devs only focus on #1. Winners optimize #2.

What tanks conversion

Price increase after wishlisting: -40% conversion

Long delay (>1 year): -35% conversion

Launch worse than marketing: -50% conversion

No launch discount: -25% conversion

Compounding effects: Multiple issues = death spiral

What boosts conversion

Launch discount for wishlisters: +30% conversion

Over-deliver on promises: +45% conversion

EA with clear roadmap: +25% conversion

Review score >85%: +60% conversion

Compounding effects: Multiple optimizations = 2-3x conversion

The conversion formula

Target Conversion =

(Wishlist-to-Purchase %) × (1 - Delay Penalty) × Review Multiplier

Industry Benchmarks:

• 40%+ first month: Exceptional
• 25-40% first month: Solid
• 15-25% first month: Average
• <15% first month: Promises not kept

Example:

• 200K wishlists
• 35% conversion
• = 70K sales in month 1
• At $20 = $1.4M revenue

Industry example: balatro's launch conversion

Wishlist Growth:

• Pre-launch: 180K wishlists
• Built over 8 months
• Steady growth, strong demo performance

Launch Execution:

• 10% launch discount
• Delivered exactly what was promised (poker roguelike)
• Review score: 96% positive
• Conversion: 48% in first month (86K sales)

Why it worked: Under-promised, over-delivered, perfect execution

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The complete visibility playbook checklist

Pre-Launch (6-12 months out): Capsule Optimization:

• [ ] Created 5 capsule variations
• [ ] Tested with $300 ad spend
• [ ] Implemented highest CTR version (>8%)
• [ ] Scheduled quarterly re-tests

Tag Strategy:

• [ ] 30% foundation tags (high volume)
• [ ] 50% competitive tags (winnable)
• [ ] 20% niche tags (dominate)
• [ ] Targeting top 50 in 5+ tags

Trailer Production:

• [ ] 0-3s hook (no logos)
• [ ] 3-15s core loop visible
• [ ] 90-second total length
• [ ] First frame = capsule quality
• [ ] Silent-first design

Update Cadence:

• [ ] Weekly small updates scheduled
• [ ] Monthly major updates planned
• [ ] Quarterly massive reveals calendared
• [ ] Never miss scheduled update

Demo Strategy:

• [ ] 30-60 minute playtime
• [ ] Steam Next Fest participation planned
• [ ] Wishlist conversion tracking ready
• [ ] Feedback collection system prepared

Review Velocity Plan:

• [ ] Beta key distribution staggered
• [ ] Content creator outreach scheduled
• [ ] Post-launch update calendar for review prompts
• [ ] Target: 20-30 reviews/week sustained

Conversion Optimization:

• [ ] Launch discount planned (10-20%)
• [ ] Delivery matches marketing promises
• [ ] Quality gates ensure >85% reviews
• [ ] Targeting 30%+ wishlist conversion

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The algorithm mastery framework

Phase 1: data gathering (months 1-3)

Goal: Feed algorithm data to learn your audience

Actions:

• Launch page with minimal marketing
• Run small ad tests ($100-300)
• A/B test capsules
• Track all metrics

Success Metric: 5%+ engagement rate

Phase 2: optimization (months 4-6)

Goal: Improve conversion based on data

Actions:

• Implement winning capsule
• Optimize tags based on rankings
• Refine trailer based on completion rates
• Begin update cadence

Success Metric: 8%+ engagement rate

Phase 3: acceleration (months 7-9)

Goal: Scale what's working

Actions:

• Demo release during Next Fest
• Major update announcements
• Press outreach with data proof
• Community building

Success Metric: 1K+ wishlists/week organic

Phase 4: launch prep (months 10-12)

Goal: Maximize conversion

Actions:

• Final trailer with best footage
• Review velocity plan execution
• Community hype building
• Launch discount preparation

Success Metric: 30K+ wishlists, 30%+ conversion

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The compound effect: how it all connects

Better Capsule → Higher CTR → More Traffic → More Wishlists

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More Wishlists → Higher Tag Ranking → More Visibility → More Traffic

↓

More Traffic → Better Data → Better Targeting → Higher Conversion

↓

Higher Conversion → Better Reviews → Algorithm Boost → More Visibility

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More Visibility → (cycle repeats, amplifying)

The Reality: Each tactic multiplies the others. Example Math:

Baseline game:

• 4% capsule CTR
• Ranked #200 in main tag
• 15% wishlist conversion
• Result: 5K wishlists, 750 sales

Same game, optimized:

• 9% capsule CTR (2.25x improvement)
• Ranked #15 in main tag (13x improvement)
• 35% wishlist conversion (2.3x improvement)
• Result: 150K wishlists, 52K sales

Same game, same quality.

Different understanding of the algorithm.

69x revenue difference.

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Conclusion: steam isn't random, it's a formula

Most indie devs treat Steam like a lottery. Post your game, hope it gets noticed, blame the algorithm when it doesn't.

The Reality:

• Steam is a formula
• The formula is observable
• Observable patterns can be optimized
• Optimization compounds

The Framework:

1. Optimize capsule (CTR >8%)

2. Strategic tags (top 50 in 5+ tags)

3. Perfect trailer (38%+ completion)

4. Consistent updates (never miss schedule)

5. Demo timing (Next Fest, 3-6 months out)

6. Review velocity (20-30/week sustained)

7. Conversion optimization (30%+ first month)

The Truth: Your game might be great. But if the algorithm doesn't see engagement, nobody else will either.

Master the formula. The visibility will follow.

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Next in Series:

• Article 6: The 5 Metrics That Predict Success - Pre-launch indicators
• Article 7: Early Access Done Right - Turning beta into revenue

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This article is part of our Game Industry Insights series. Analysis based on Steam data, successful launches, and algorithmic pattern analysis 2020-2024.